Production Decline Curve Analysis for Petroleum Engineers
Forecast well reserves and production rates using decline curve analysis
What You Can Do
You can input well production history and operational data to Claude, which applies decline curve analysis methodologies to identify decline patterns, calculate decline parameters (b-exponent, decline rates), and generate production forecasts over defined timeframes. Claude quantifies recoverable reserves, supports SEC reserve bookings, and produces scenario analyses (base case, optimistic, pessimistic) to evaluate well economics and facility planning requirements.
Features
classifies exponential, hyperbolic, or harmonic decline from production data
determines decline rate and exponent for rate-time modeling
quantifies proved, probable, and possible recoverable reserves based on decline curves
generates monthly or annual production projections over 10-30 year horizons
creates base case, upside, and downside forecasts to bound economic uncertainty
identifies minimum economic production rates and facility design thresholds
benchmarks single-well performance against offset or regional wells
evaluates impact of operational changes (choke adjustments, workovers) on decline trajectory
Example Output
Input: Well XYZ production data (24 months), initial rate 500 bbl/day, current rate 180 bbl/day
Output:
- Decline Type: Hyperbolic (b = 0.65)
- Decline Rate: 35% annual
- Reserve Estimate: 180,000 barrels (proved)
- 10-Year Forecast: Year 1: 150 bbl/day → Year 10: 22 bbl/day
- Scenario Range: Base case 180K barrels | Upside 220K | Downside 145K
- Breakeven Threshold: 8 bbl/day at $40/barrel
Input: Three offset wells for comparison
Output: Performance ranking, relative decline trajectories, reserve distribution across analogous wells, recommended well prioritization for re-completion or workovers
What's Included
- SKILL.md instruction file with DCA methodology reference:
- Production data template (Excel-ready format with monthly rates, cumulative production, operational notes):
- Decline curve parameter calculation worksheet with hyperbolic, exponential, and harmonic templates:
- 10-year and 30-year forecast templates with pricing scenarios:
- Reserve estimation checklist (proved, probable, possible classifications):
- Scenario sensitivity framework (base/upside/downside inputs and outputs):
- Analogous well comparison matrix:
Who It's For
- Petroleum production engineers optimizing well performance and forecasting reserves
- Reservoir engineers evaluating field development plans and recovery factors
- Completions engineers designing wells based on expected decline trajectory and facility constraints
- Finance and business development teams supporting investment justifications and economic modeling
- Regulatory compliance specialists preparing SEC reserve bookings and annual production reports
- Asset managers comparing portfolio well performance and identifying optimization opportunities
Best For
- Generating proved reserve estimates for SEC filings and financial reporting
- Forecasting production streams for facility sizing, pipeline capacity, and export planning
- Evaluating well economics, breakeven thresholds, and investment ROI decisions
- Benchmarking single-well performance against offset or regional analogous wells
- Creating scenario analyses (base/upside/downside) to bound production uncertainty and risk
- Assessing operational impact on decline (workovers, choke adjustments, stimulation treatments)
- Supporting unitization agreements and reserve distribution negotiations
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