Investment Thesis & Deal Screening Framework
Structure investment theses and screen M&A deals with defensible risk-return analysis
What You Can Do
You can rapidly assess strategic fit and financial viability of acquisition targets, synthesize fragmented due diligence data into coherent thesis documents, and model exit scenarios with IRR/MOIC calculations. This skill helps you screen deals early, identify key assumptions, stress-test valuations, and compare opportunities against consistent criteria—turning raw deal data into investment committee-ready recommendations.
Features
articulate strategic rationale, financial case, and critical assumptions in a documented framework
assess targets against strategic fit, financial viability, and risk-return alignment
model bull, base, and bear case scenarios with exit multiples and holding period returns
synthesize pricing, comparable company analysis, and DCF assumptions into decision-critical summaries
surface key drivers and sensitivities to guide due diligence and stress-testing
evaluate multiple targets against standardized criteria for portfolio-level prioritization
organize operational, financial, commercial, and legal findings into structured risk assessments
Example Output
Investment Thesis Summary
Target: TechServices Co. Ask Price: $85M (6.2× EBITDA)
Strategic Fit: ✓ Complements existing product suite, adds $12M annualized cross-sell opportunity
Base Case Return: IRR 28%, MOIC 2.8× (5-year hold, 8.5× exit multiple)
Key Assumptions:
- Revenue CAGR 15% (vs. historical 12%)
- EBITDA margin stable at 32%
- Exit at 7.5–9.5× EBITDA
Risk Factors: Customer concentration (top 3 = 52%), integration complexity, management retention
Recommendation: Proceed to Phase 2 (commercial due diligence) pending management interview and customer reference checks.
What's Included
- SKILL.md instruction file with deal intake checklist, thesis structure, and workflow phases:
- Investment Thesis Template: standardized framework for strategic rationale, financial case, and assumptions
- Deal Screening Scorecard: criteria-based evaluation matrix for strategic fit, financial viability, and risk assessment
- Risk-Return Model Framework: bull/base/bear case structure with IRR and MOIC calculation templates
- Due Diligence Synthesis Checklist: operational, financial, commercial, and legal finding organization tool
Who It's For
- Corporate Development Managers — evaluating M&A targets and building investment committee recommendations
- Investment Committee Members — reviewing deal theses and assessing risk-return profiles prior to approval
- Business Development Leaders — screening acquisition opportunities and prioritizing deal flow
- Private Equity Associates — structuring investment theses for portfolio company acquisitions
- Financial Analysts — synthesizing due diligence findings into structured decision frameworks
Best For
- Rapid deal screening to filter out poor strategic or financial fits early
- Building defensible investment theses for investment committee presentations
- Modeling risk-return scenarios and sensitivity analysis for exit outcomes
- Comparing multiple acquisition targets against standardized evaluation criteria
- Synthesizing fragmented due diligence data into coherent risk assessments
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